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The most recent retailer to file for Chapter 11 was Rue21 on May 15, and Gymboree missed its June 1 interest payment, Moody’s noted. Moody’s describes Toys R Us as a “fallen angel,” whose initial downgrade in 2004 was a reflection of the fact that it, as Moody’s puts it, was no longer in control of its competitive destiny, while Walmart and Target were in the driver’s seat in the toy segment. During the holiday season in particular, those retailers forced Toys R Us to compete on price, which hurt margins. But throughout “myriad refinancings" (including one in 2016 that Moody’s deemed a distressed exchange), and multiple CEO turnovers, Toys R Us managed to maintain market share, relevance and generally solid liquidity, accordion to the report. “This has been one of the key factors that has kept the rating from dropping … even when factoring in its serial debt maturities and a quantitative profile” that has sometimes seemed to warrant a lower grade, according to Moody’s. “Throughout, Toys has held onto its position as the year-round destination toy retailer. It has also held up fairly well against the cutthroat holiday promotional environment that is spurred by Walmart, Amazon and Target, all of which deeply discount toys to drive web and store traffic. It also has strong vendor relationships with Hasbro and Mattel, which we believe have a vested interest in supporting Toys with exclusive product and in some cases favorable vendor terms. We cannot envision either of these key vendors benefiting from a toy retail segment led by three mammoth retailers that view the toy category as a seasonal traffic driver.” Turning to BJ’s, Moody’s says the wholesale membership-based retailer was saddled with some $2 billion in new debt from its leveraged buyout from private equity firms Leonard Green and CVC Capital Partners. In the aftermath of that sale, BJ’s metrics, (including debt and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) weakened significantly, but Moody’s took into account the retailer’s franchise strength and competitive position.
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“Retail is not in any long-term danger,” Shay said, but “the pace of change is accelerating.” He says stores need to dramatically step up their investments in e-commerce. Department stores have pledged to do better and adapt, expanding their exclusive merchandise and beefing up their online services. But they and other clothing-dependent stores have struggled to prove themselves to shoppers. The clothing sector may be at a tipping point when it comes to online shopping for that category. Cooper Smith, an analyst at research firm L2, estimates that about 18 to 22 percent of clothing sales will be online this year. That’s a critical juncture. His research and that from firms like Boomerang Commerce shows that when online penetration in a merchandising category hits 20 percent, that’s when Amazon steps up its game to seek more of that market. Analysts say one example is what happened when consumer electronics hit that threshold around 2005, and the liquidation of chains like Circuit City followed. Amazon has made a big push into clothing in the last two years, expanding its offerings of high-volume items like bras, socks, and men’s dress shirts where shoppers don’t care about brand names. “2017 will be the year that apparel e-commerce takes off,” said Smith, though he doesn’t believe the online portion of clothing sales will go higher than 35 percent for reasons that include people liking to try stuff on.
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